Black Swan Down

Now is this a waste of time?

‘In the unlikely event that you are hearing this, our investors’ money will have accomplished something. But they will likely be dead.’

If there are a lot of probable risks in life, accidents, sickness, disease, what should we do about the unlikely ones? Alien invasion, collision with a meteorite, pandemics?

If the downside is huge, but the likelihood is small, do we do anything?

This is an interesting topic for my book ‘The History of Worry’.

I suppose you multiply the likelihood by the cost, then line it up with every other risk in life, and choose what to fret about.